Policy and the emergence of driverless, shared, and electric vehicles
On November 15-16, 2016, Postdoctoral Associate John Helveston represented the ISE at the “3 Revolutions Conference” hosted by the Institute of Transportation Studies at the University of California, Davis (ITS-Davis). The conference brought together 40 academic, government, industry, and policy experts and stake holders to consider the relevant policies for steering the emerging transportation revolutions of shared, automated, and electrified vehicles towards the public interest.
These three innovations have the to potential to dramatically shape the future of transportation. One future could be defined by greater urban sprawl, energy use, pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions. Another future could enable greater affordability and accessibility of transportation choices to a greater number of people, bringing large public and private benefits. The conference focused on key policies and strategies to facilitate the latter path, one where the synergies between vehicle electrification, vehicle automation, and vehicle and ride sharing will result in net benefits to society.
The conference resulted in the development of the ITS-Davis 3 Revolutions Policy Initiative. In addition to hosting future events, the initiative will publicize an ongoing series of policy briefs followed by a book with contributions from some of the conference participants.
The attendees of the conference were also surveyed on their expectations of how and when these future revolutions will occur. The survey results show that 70% of participants expect fully driverless vehicles will account for more than 20 percent of vehicles sold by 2040. In addition, 85% believe commercial ride sharing will account for 5% percent of all U.S. passenger miles by 2030, and 78% believe that number will rise to 20% by 2040. Finally, 75% of respondents also think that the majority of commercially available vehicles for ride sharing will be “Zero Emission Vehicles” by 2050, including battery, plug-in hybrid, and fuel-cell electric vehicles. The survey respondents also named a wide range of companies they expect are best positioned to capitalize on these revolutions, including Google, Tesla, Uber, Lyft, and General Motors.
To find out more about the interactions between policy and these three revolutions, visit the 3 Revolutions Policy Initiative.