The Global Warming Potential Misrepresents the Physics of Global Warming Thereby Misleading Policy Makers
A popular measure of climate change could be misleading
A widely used metric in climate policymaking uses over-simplified forecasting methods that can lead to costly mistakes. Institute for Sustainable Energy (now the Boston University Institute for Global Sustainability) Senior Fellow Robert Kleinberg argues that the global community—especially policymakers—should utilize more scientifically rigorous modeling tools to augment the commonly used Global Warming Potential (GWP).
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AUTHOR
Robert Kleinberg
Key Takeaways
- Clear and accurate communication between scientists, policymakers, and the general public is essential as we address the defining challenge of climate change.
- The GWP is a method for comparing the climate effects of greenhouse gases and is often used in long-term commitments such as the nationally determined contributions of the Paris Agreement. But the GWP is arbitrary, ignores the time dependence of emission sources, and is in some cases misleading. Therefore, it has no place in describing the effects of climate change mitigation strategies beyond a 20-year horizon.
- Global mean temperature change trajectories should be the preferred easy-to-understand model in educating policymakers and the public about greenhouse gas control.
- The temperature change trajectory would make climate policy discussions more scientifically rigorous and demystify the criteria used in policy decisions.
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