天气

失去美国国家海洋和大气管理局和新濠影汇赌场应急管理局的专业知识“将很难重建”

格里高利Wellenius discusses how recent funding and staff cuts to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Federal Emergency Management Agency will affect disaster response ahead of what is expected to be an “above-normal” 2025 hurricane season.

Last week, Tropical Storm Cosme became the 第三次命名的风暴 of the 2025 hurricane season, in what is expected to be an “高于正常季节” with up to 10 named storms turning into 飓风, and 3-5 of these storms becoming major 飓风. 作为改革新濠影汇赌场政府努力的一部分，特朗普政府一直在削减那些使各州能够为极端天气做准备和应对的项目，这引发了天气和公共卫生专家对美国在近期和遥远未来管理环境灾害的能力的担忧。

The sweeping funding cuts and staff reductions that have 困扰 multiple federal agencies since January have not spared the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the federal agency within the Department of Commerce that is tasked with studying and predicting changes in 气候, 天气, the ocean, and coasts. 该机构领导气候新濠影汇线上赌场研究，监测环境灾害，管理渔业，并向政府、学术界和私营部门提供全球环境数据，为各种政策和决策提供信息。 它还提供天气预报，监督国家气象局（NWS）。

简而言之，美国国家海洋和大气管理局的专业知识对于各州和社区在极端天气之前获得早期和准确的预报以保护生命，房屋和其他财产和土地至关重要-特别是在历史上第三大损失季节之后的飓风季节。 But the agency has reportedly lost about 10% of its workforce through mass firings and voluntary retirement in recent months, as part of the administration’s efforts to slash the size of the federal government. 其中包括NOAA监管的国家气象局的至少600人。 Although the NWS is aiming to 重新雇用 more than 100 of the 600 eliminated staff members, it is unclear how long it will take to 重新雇用 them; 这个过程可能需要几个月的时间，可能会持续到飓风季节甚至更长时间。

These cuts are already 影响 天气 forecasting and operations across the country, with various markets reporting unexpected extreme 天气. 沿海地区的许多地区气象服务办公室人手不足或完全没有人手，这导致每天发射的气象气球减少，这些气球收集大气数据，为天气应用程序和当地市场的预报模型提供信息。 The cuts also led to the 关闭 of the Florida-based location of NOAA’s 导航反应小组, one of six such teams nationwide, that reopen US ports after storms; 如果这个季节该地区经历了严重的飓风，响应时间可能会变慢，港口可能会关闭更长时间。 The agency may also be facing a 大幅削减预算 of $1.5 billion—more than 25 percent—for 2026.

除了削减国家海洋和大气管理局的开支外，特朗普还一再呼吁取消新濠影汇赌场紧急事务管理局（FEMA），称其成本过高且效率低下。 The agency, which has been on the front lines of federal disaster responses for 50 years, was already under-staffed and navigating multiple 未经加工的 emergency aid requests before the administration further 减少 its workforce by 20 percent.

“Reducing the staff that are working to make 天气 forecasts more accurate and effective, while also making cuts to the agency charged with helping people recover in the advent of a disaster, is a recipe for a really tough hurricane season,” says 格里高利Wellenius, professor of environmental health and director of the 气候与健康中心. Wellenius and other SPH faculty have published numerous studies 检查 how extreme 天气 today threatens the health of people and communities and how extreme events are becoming 更频繁，更激烈 due to continued 气候变化 is increasing the frequency and intensity of 飓风, heat waves, wildfires, and other extreme 天气 events.

随着飓风季节的正式到来，Wellenius进一步谈到了新濠影汇赌场政府对NOAA和FEMA的支持减少所带来的直接和长期影响。

在过去的几周里，我们看到了东北部破纪录的野火，中西部的龙卷风，以及南部的季末暴风雪。 这些对NOAA和FEMA人员和资金的削减将如何影响全国不同的社区或地区？

WELLENIUS: Extreme 天气 doesn’t know boundaries. 全国各地的人们都受到不同形式的恶劣天气的影响，无论是极端高温、飓风、龙卷风，还是野火产生的烟雾。 这影响着红州和蓝州的人们，影响着沿海和内陆的人们，影响着农村和城市地区的人们。 面对极端天气，每个人都有风险，尽管有些人和地方的风险更高。 For example, last year Hurricane Helene caused significant 破坏 and health harms to coastal Florida as well as the inland rural counties of North Carolina. 虽然我们通常认为飓风是对沿海地区的威胁，但远离海岸的内陆地区也面临风险。 这个国家的大部分地区都容易受到某种形式的极端天气的影响。

除了安全之外，这些新濠影汇赌场行动还有什么更广泛的影响？

另一个重大损失是，新濠影汇赌场应急管理局正在资助大量项目，以提高社区对极端天气（包括飓风）的抵御能力。 很多资金现在都消失了。 There are direct impacts of that loss, but the longer-term impact is that our communities continue to remain vulnerable to extreme 天气. Last year, 美国国家海洋和大气管理局记录 27 events that cost the US economy at least $1 billion, costing the US economy more than $180 billion in losses and 568 deaths. 这些极端事件的数量和代价不断增加。 同时，不幸的是，政府最近宣布，国家海洋和大气管理局已经停止追踪灾难、损失或人员伤亡。

随着时间的推移，这些极端事件变得越来越频繁，代价也越来越高，这些灾害对受影响社区的经济影响是巨大的。 At a time where we’re expected to have more 飓风 this season, and potentially in the future, and potentially less ability to predict or respond to those threats, these events are going to adversely affect people’s lives and their wallets.

政府声称新濠影汇赌场应急管理局既浪费又无效。 你认为有必要进行合理的改革吗？有没有机会在不解散或削弱这些机构能力的情况下进行这些改革？

I’m confident that every government agency can benefit from intelligent reforms to increase efficiency and deliver even more value to the American public. 另一方面，在没有明确改革愿景的情况下，简单地缩减政府机构会让人民和社区面临真正的风险。 新濠影汇赌场应急管理局在全国范围内的灾难应对中发挥了极其重要的作用。 随着新濠影汇赌场应急管理局帮助受灾社区的能力和资源的减少，许多救灾和恢复的费用将转移到各州和受影响的人们身上。

国家气象局表示，它正在重新雇用一些员工。 你认为最初的削减会对他们重新获得和留住有经验的员工的能力以及他们对政府的信任产生什么影响？

在所有这些政府削减中，我们看到了大量人才的流失。 这对这个国家来说是一个巨大的损失，因为专业知识的流失真的很难重建。 Even if things change in the future, it’s going to take a long time for the country to recover from that.